Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Pacific Tropical Outlook
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221137
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa
tomorrow. Although environmental conditions are not expected to
be particularly conducive, some slow development of this system is
possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far
eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas
of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)
...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Fay was located near 31.8, -33.7 with movement SW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 970 WTNT31 KNHC 220840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 33.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 33.7 West. Fay is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 888 WTNT21 KNHC 220840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 33.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220841 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated, leaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery. Given the lack of organized deep convection over the past several hours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless convection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the GDMI and HCCA aids. A combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may relax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly warmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery suggests that any returning convection will occur only in intermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open trough by the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 31.8N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 220840
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 09:23:03 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California, and on Hurricane Polo, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
The remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several
hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, has produced an
increase in showers and thunderstorms over the last few hours. The
environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This
motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP1/EP162026)
...ODALYS STRENGTHENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Odalys was located near 14.7, -130.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...ODALYS STRENGTHENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 130.4W ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 130.4 West. Odalys is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and then east-northeast is expected over the next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220838 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Bursts of deep convection continue near the center of Odalys tonight as the cyclone becomes better organized. Although recent scatterometer passes missed the circulation, microwave imagery shows an improving structure, with convective banding now evident over the southern and eastern quadrants. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS range from 47 to 55 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory, leaning toward the higher end of these estimates. The system is moving north-northwestward, or 340/6 kt. A decrease in forward speed is expected today as the cyclone turns northward, northeastward, and then east-northeastward tonight in response to a deepening trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United States. An east-northeastward to eastward motion is forecast for the rest of the week as Odalys is steered within the flow of the trough. Toward the end of the forecast period, the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to a potential binary interaction with Hurricane Polo as it tracks toward Baja California, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though nudged slightly leftward and slowed down given the model uncertainty around day 5. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for strengthening over the next couple of days, as vertical wind shear slightly decreases, with abundant mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In 48 to 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter a drier mid-level air mass and may experience increased wind shear induced by upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance, aligned closely with the HCCA and GDMI aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 888
FOPZ11 KNHC 220839
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 21(39) 1(40) X(40)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 130W 50 78 9(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
15N 130W 64 23 18(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 09:28:59 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Polo (EP2/EP172026)
...POLO REACHES CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Sep 22 the center of Polo was located near 14.5, -101.5 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 926 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 7a
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 834 WTPZ32 KNHC 221155 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 600 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...POLO REACHES CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 101.5W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional watches and warnings could be necessary today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 101.5 West. Polo is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220835 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 Polo continues to intensify at a very rapid rate, and it is closing in on category 5 strength. Satellite images indicate that Polo has a compact, well-defined eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. The estimated initial intensity is 130 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Polo later today, and the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. The intensification rate over the past 24 hours is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over that time period. Despite its strength, Polo remains a relatively compact cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye, respectively. The major hurricane continues to drift to the east-southeast, and it could become nearly stationary later today in weak steering currents. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected tonight as deep-layer ridging becomes established over Mexico and the south-central U.S. This pattern should bring the intense core of Polo near, but likely just offshore, of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in how close the hurricane will get to the coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo makes its closest approach. Polo should begin to pull away from southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering currents become more complicated over the weekend when Polo reaches the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west. This pattern change should cause Polo to slow down and gain a little more latitude. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, but still lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope. Polo remains in ideal environmental conditions and continued rapid intensification appears likely, and the cyclone is forecast to reach category 5 strength later today. It should be noted that in mature and powerful hurricanes like Polo, internal dynamics often cause intensity fluctuations and that could occur with this cyclone over the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a slight increase in easterly vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, but Polo is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance in the short term, but falls to near the middle of the guidance envelope from 48 to 120 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico, it is too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.6N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220836
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 100W 34 5 14(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 19(60)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 21(76)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 23(51)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Polo Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2026 09:34:54 GMT