Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Pacific Tropical Outlook
Current US IR Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170506
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located
about midway between the Windward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands
is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. If these trends
continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression
later today. The system is expected to move generally northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic
during the next several days. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 17 Sep 2025 05:20:55 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170506
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario, located several hundred miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario (EP3/EP132025)
...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 23.7, -118.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 264 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 118.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next day. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Mario will continue to weaken, with dissipation expected by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 753 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 059 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Mario has not produced any deep convection for more than 12 hours. The system is now over sea-surface temperatures of 23C and southwesterly wind shear is increasing. All guidance is in good agreement that the remnant low of Mario will continue to weaken and dissipate on Thursday. The remnant low of Mario is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in forward speed until dissipation, as Mario is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the northeast, or right, of the previous forecast, closer to most of the latest consensus models. While the remnant low of Mario is forecast to dissipate well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 452
FOPZ13 KNHC 170233
PWSEP3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 03:21:22 GMT