Atlantic Tropical Outlook

 

Pacific Tropical Outlook

 

Current US IR Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

013 
ABNT20 KNHC 010519
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast
U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop
from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters
off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur
thereafter as the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:20:11 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

310 
ABPZ20 KNHC 010516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin around 150 miles
offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Summary for Hurricane Flossie (EP1/EP062025)

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 16.9, -105.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Flossie Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 178 
WTPZ31 KNHC 010844
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025
 
...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a slight decrease in forward speed.  On the forecast 
track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico 
today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during 
the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, through this
morning.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 526 
WTPZ21 KNHC 010843
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an 
expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of 
the cyclone.  A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 
0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted 
with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from 
both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 
to 79 knots at 06z.  Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking 
into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few 
hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this 
advisory.  

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a 
slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a 
weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The 
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely 
aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus 
aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 
28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. 
The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast 
reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as 
Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain 
dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a post-tropical 
low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity 
forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS 
and NNIC.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,  
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Hurricane Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 547 
FOPZ11 KNHC 010844
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062025               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 105W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 110W       34  1   6( 7)  57(64)  25(89)   3(92)   X(92)   X(92)
20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)  21(22)  33(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   3( 4)  25(29)  20(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA

Hurricane Flossie Graphics

Hurricane Flossie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 08:49:38 GMT

Hurricane Flossie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 09:21:36 GMT